2009 Social Media Predictions – Six Months So Far…

June 4, 2009 :: Steve Fisher

As part of my living with GTD (Getting Things Done) I have it on my calendar once a quarter to clean out all the unorganized bookmarks and either put them in context for use later or just get rid of them. By admission I am not a big tagger (my friend JessieX thinks all GenXers are) but organizing these bookmarks I do give them a few tags so I can find them later.

During this sweep of bookmarks I was cleaning out my blog reader with all kinds of clippings and folders for use later. I came across the article for 2009 Social Media Predictions that Peter Kim did at the beginning of this year. While we made our own attempt at predictions, I thought I would look and see how things were coming along six months into the year.

Shall we get started?

2008: Measure success with traditional metrics such as impressions, clicks, brand recall, and unique views.
2009: Measure with customer service metrics like retention/ satisfaction & social metrics like engagement.
[from Rohit Bhargava]

HOW WE DOING? We are getting there with tools like Radian6 helping.

Whether it’s Oprah using Skype, Google’s chat function being enabled with video, and more widespread adoption of high-speed internet have thrust video chat into the limelight in 2008. In 2009, with corporate budgets slashed and the economy down, people will still need to have face-to-face meetings and communication; video chat will be a cost-effective substitute for that. [from Scott Monty]

HOW WE DOING? This is definitely happening with Hulu releasing a desktop version and YouTube just announcing YouTubeXL for home media boxes.

It’s already happening – brand marketers are bypassing their agencies and working directly with media companies to create out-of-the-box marketing programs.  In 2009, we’ll see at least one major marketer put their entire media plan in the hands of a large media partner (probably  Google), leaving their agency out in the cold. [from Greg Verdino]

HOW WE DOING? Nope. Not yet anyway…

Facebook Connect (or Google Friend Connect – it doesn’t really matter which.)  In 2007 we “had to have” Second Life islands and widgets.  In 2008, we “had to have” Facebook Fan Pages and iPhone Apps.  In 2009, marketers will continue to put tactics before strategy and implement next year’s shiny object to ‘socialize’ their web presence without quite understanding why it’s important to do so.  Hopefully, 2010’s shiny object will be “a strategy.” [from Greg Verdino]

HOW WE DOING? One word. Twitter.

After a devastating holiday season, retailers will eagerly seek a way to improve results other than driving demand with deeper discounts. One option they will investigate will be how to insert people and social connections into the buying process, illuminating and influencing for the first time the Black Hole Of Consideration. As they lick their wounds in the first half of 2009, retailers will watch from the sidelines as media companies implement open social technologies like Facebook Connect and the Open Social Platform. But as the holiday season launches early after Labor Day, shoppers will find options to see what friends are recommending, buying and rating integrated into the shopping experience. [from Charlene Li]

HOW WE DOING? Getting there but still a ways to go. 2010 or 2011 for this one.

Digital natives are less likely to use all the privacy settings available on social networks. Other digital immigrants sometimes forget, don’t know how, or don’t care about privacy settings either. The Internet will become a massive high school yearbook, that is searchable and open to the world.

HOW WE DOING? Not really. Probably not this year.

With tighter budgets and so much buzz marketing departments everywhere will embrace social media to engage their customers (trade shows will take a huge hit), and extend their brands. The downside will be that many (most?) will miss the point and try to market through social media channels. Expect more blogs about product benefits and tweets about limited time offers.

HOW WE DOING? Yes. Because of the recession companies are looking for creative ways to use low-cost tools to improve campaign results and interact with customers better.

There will be increased expectations by C-suite execs that their marketers can “figure out” how to integrate Social Media programs into broader marketing efforts.  While the customer conversation and support efforts can and should continue unabated, the credibility that such efforts create will spawn opportunities to become more ambitious in commercial outreach (i.e., the consumers who now love the company and help vet the storyline will also be keen to help the company succeed – promoting that storyline in PR and advertising, guided content creation, etc.). [from Todd Defren]

HOW WE DOING? Yep. See previous entry on corporate social media.

They’ll probably do it out of the same frustration we all have with the platform – it’s so useful and good but hasn’t been improved in the least and still doesn’t work well. For a group of guys to build the single-most useful communications software and social utility in recent memory, you’d think they’d work to keep users happy and improve the service. It’s like they build the first car, but refuse to add power steering, brakes and air conditioning. Still, we won’t gravitate elsewhere because it’s selling point is its simplicity and utility. But damn! What the hell are they doing with that funding? Google will not only make it work right, they’ll make it work better and add to their already ubiquitous hold on the online user experience. [from Jason Falls]

HOW WE DOING? Close but don’t count this out yet. Rumors are that Twitter turned down $1 billion for the company but they could make an offer that no one should refuse.

Already having gotten publicity by being featured in (gasp!) mainstream media in 2008, the rise of Twitter is a certainty. Brands will adopt Twitter for everything from media/influencer outreach to customer service to crisis communications. But more than any push-channel, Twitter will give customers, advocates and critics unprecedented access to corporate personnel and vice versa.

It’s been a key tool I’ve used on behalf of Ford because it’s given us a strategic advantage over GM: they’ve largely used the mass-marketing approach of social media through blog posts and (mostly) RSS-to-Twitter feeds; I’m in the process of humanizing the Ford brand, and individual accounts on Twitter make that possible. [from Scott Monty]

HOW WE DOING? One word – Oprah. Need I say anything more?

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Comments are moderated and will appear shortly. See terms.

  • Hey, I don't think I'm doing so bad in my picks six months in: 1. Obama Blackberry is on track. 2. Narrowing of the field: Eh, outlook hazy, check back later. 3. OpenID was kind of a gimme. 4. I think we've already passed my newspapers going Web-only count. 5. Twitter popularity -- eh, too soon to tell.
  • You are right Joe, you are doing pretty good. I think might take over my title as Technology Soothsayer at the end of 2009.
  • AmberNaslund
    Hi Steve,

    We're getting there indeed. Our strong focus this year is on helping companies really dig deep into measurement and articulating ROI. It's the hardest nut to crack in all of this, but we're determined.

    Thanks for the recap on this!
    Amber Naslund
    Director of Community, Radian6
    @Ambercadabra
  • You guys are doing a great job at Radian6 and we find the platform extremely useful for our work building the Network Solutions social media community.

    I am sure that Radian6 will crack that nut and set forth metrics that we can all work with so that the ROI of Social Media is easier to measure in the future.

    -Steve
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